{"id":12431,"date":"2026-05-11T14:45:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T14:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.marshberry.com\/eu\/?p=12431"},"modified":"2026-05-11T14:45:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T14:45:12","slug":"is-it-a-good-time-to-sell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.marshberry.com\/eu\/blog\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\/","title":{"rendered":"Is It A Good Time To Sell?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u201cIs it a good time to sell?\u201d\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0the\u00a0most common\u00a0question\u00a0from\u00a0owners\u00a0of private\u00a0insurance\u00a0broking businesses.\u00a0What\u00a0the\u00a0question really\u00a0means: Are\u00a0prices\u00a0likely to be higher\u00a0or lower in the\u00a0foreseeable future?\u00a0And\u00a0will\u00a0waiting be rewarded\u00a0or penalized?\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0an entirely reasonable question. But\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0also\u00a0one that\u00a0often\u00a0rests on\u00a0the\u00a0false premise\u00a0that trends in valuation are predictable.\u00a0In reality, markets\u00a0are\u00a0only\u00a0easy to\u00a0analyse\u00a0in hindsight.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Take Marsh, the bellwether for\u00a0the\u00a0insurance\u00a0broking\u00a0sector. During the depths of the\u00a0financial\u00a0crisis,\u00a0its shares traded at around $20. Over the following fifteen years, the share price increased many times over. With the benefit of hindsight, holding rather than selling was clearly the right decision.\u00a0Equally, with hindsight, a shareholder who sold at the\u00a0stock\u2019s\u00a0most recent\u00a0peak\u00a0($242 on 28\u00a0March\u00a02025)\u00a0would have done even better than one who held on through the\u00a0subsequent\u00a0correction.\u00a0Still,\u00a0even those who did nothing\u00a0would have\u00a0generated exceptional\u00a0long\u2011term\u00a0returns\u00a0(the current share price is around $170). The lesson is not that there was a \u201cright\u201d moment to sell, but that it is almost impossible to consistently call turning points in markets.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-added-challenge-of-calling-markets-in-private-m-amp-a-nbsp-nbsp\"><strong>The added challenge of calling markets in private M&amp;A&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In private&nbsp;mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A)&nbsp;there\u2019s&nbsp;another&nbsp;complication:&nbsp;Most transactions are funded&nbsp;largely&nbsp;by&nbsp;debt. The availability and cost of that debt&nbsp;exerts&nbsp;a major influence on what buyers can pay,&nbsp;and that&nbsp;introduces&nbsp;an&nbsp;added&nbsp;layer of uncertainty entirely outside&nbsp;of&nbsp;a seller\u2019s control.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Importantly,\u00a0for owners of private broking businesses, this dynamic has tended to dampen extremes.\u00a0In recent memory, as public\u00a0broker valuations\u00a0rose\u00a0dramatically, private company multiples\u00a0also\u00a0tended\u00a0to\u00a0increase \u2014\u00a0but by\u00a0less\u00a0than the public valuation.\u00a0As public market valuations have since fallen back, the impact on private company pricing has\u00a0also\u00a0generally been more muted.\u00a0The private market\u00a0may\u00a0move\u00a0slower\u00a0and with less volatility,\u00a0but\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0still\u00a0unpredictable.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s\u00a0also a practical difference\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0often overlooked. A shareholder in a quoted company can decide to sell and execute that decision in minutes. An owner of a broker or\u00a0Managing General Agent (MGA)\u00a0would be doing well to turn a decision into a completed transaction in under six months, and\u00a0it most\u00a0often\u00a0takes\u00a0longer.\u00a0A lot can change\u00a0in the interim.\u00a0By the time a business reaches the market, negotiates\u00a0terms\u00a0and completes\u00a0the agreement, market conditions may have\u00a0altered. Trying to \u201ctime\u201d the market in private M&amp;A is,\u00a0to put it\u00a0bluntly,\u00a0basically\u00a0impossible.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We all&nbsp;recognise&nbsp;the&nbsp;behaviour&nbsp;of homeowners during falling property markets:&nbsp;Sellers are reluctant to adjust price expectations, even though selling cheaply also means buying cheaply. Relative value often matters more than absolute value.&nbsp;The same logic applies&nbsp;\u2014&nbsp;less obviously&nbsp;\u2014&nbsp;to the sale of a private company. An owner who sold their brokerage&nbsp;five years ago&nbsp;(or longer)&nbsp;may still regret achieving&nbsp;approximately&nbsp;half&nbsp;the&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;of what they could have achieved&nbsp;last year.&nbsp;Yet&nbsp;those proceeds, if&nbsp;invested in the&nbsp;stock&nbsp;market,&nbsp;are likely to have&nbsp;produced&nbsp;a similar or greater uplift. Again,&nbsp;relative value is more important than absolute value.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-is-it-the-right-time-to-sell-nbsp-nbsp\"><strong>Is it the right time to sell?&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on everything presented above, the correct answer to the question\u00a0is\u00a0quite\u00a0consistent and, for some,\u00a0counter\u2011intuitive:\u00a0The right time to sell is\u00a0determined\u00a0far more by personal considerations than by the state of the market.\u00a0Is it\u00a0the right\u00a0time to exchange future, uncertain value for certainty today? None of us are getting younger. Are the demands of the business\u00a0\u2014\u00a0including\u00a0management depth, investment\u00a0requirements,\u00a0or regulatory burden\u00a0\u2014\u00a0starting to\u00a0feel burdensome? Is the market itself changing in ways that introduce new risks to\u00a0the\u00a0business model?\u00a0These are the questions that matter\u00a0much more than transient market values.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So,&nbsp;when&nbsp;anyone&nbsp;asks,&nbsp;\u201cIs it a good time to sell?\u201d,&nbsp;the&nbsp;honest answer is:&nbsp;If&nbsp;someone&nbsp;genuinely knew the answer,&nbsp;they&nbsp;wouldn\u2019t&nbsp;be&nbsp;advising on&nbsp;M&amp;A&nbsp;\u2014&nbsp;they\u2019d&nbsp;be a billionaire hedge fund manager.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But is it the right time<em>\u00a0for you\u00a0<\/em>to sell? That is\u00a0a very different\u00a0question. And one where experience, perspective, and a clear understanding of the\u00a0tradeoffs\u00a0can make all the difference.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cIs it a good time to sell?\u201d\u00a0That\u2019s\u00a0the\u00a0most common\u00a0question\u00a0from\u00a0owners\u00a0of private\u00a0insurance\u00a0broking businesses.\u00a0What\u00a0the\u00a0question really\u00a0means: Are\u00a0prices\u00a0likely to be higher\u00a0or lower in the\u00a0foreseeable future?\u00a0And\u00a0will\u00a0waiting be rewarded\u00a0or penalized?\u00a0It\u2019s\u00a0an entirely reasonable question. But\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0also\u00a0one that\u00a0often\u00a0rests on\u00a0the\u00a0false premise\u00a0that trends in valuation are predictable.\u00a0In reality, markets\u00a0are\u00a0only\u00a0easy to\u00a0analyse\u00a0in hindsight.\u00a0\u00a0 Take Marsh, the bellwether for\u00a0the\u00a0insurance\u00a0broking\u00a0sector. During the depths of the\u00a0financial\u00a0crisis,\u00a0its shares traded at around $20. Over the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":8404,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[47,20,44],"tags":[],"mu_industry":[49],"class_list":["post-12431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-valuations","category-m-a","category-sell-side","mu_industry-insurance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is It A Good Time To Sell? - MarshBerry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"News &amp; Views on Mergers &amp; Acquisitions, Strategies and Trends from the experts at MarshBerry.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marshberry.com\/eu\/blog\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is It A Good Time To Sell?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"News &amp; Views on Mergers &amp; Acquisitions, Strategies and Trends from the experts at MarshBerry.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.marshberry.com\/eu\/blog\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"MarshBerry Europe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MarshBerry\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-11T14:45:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-11T14:45:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.marshberry.com\/eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/MBI_CloseUp.YellowFlower-scaled.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"natalieleach\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@MarshBerryInc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@MarshBerryInc\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"natalieleach\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"natalieleach\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/5292049a6cfbb05adc0a072db1080859\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Is It A Good Time To Sell?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-05-11T14:45:11+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-05-11T14:45:12+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 792,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/MBI_CloseUp.YellowFlower-scaled.jpeg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Business Valuations\",\n\t                \"M&amp;A\",\n\t                \"Sell Side\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.marshberry.com\\\/eu\\\/blog\\\/is-it-a-good-time-to-sell\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Is It A Good Time To Sell? 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