The Canadian insurance brokerage mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market entered 2025 following a multi-year deceleration in deal activity, easing from 129 transactions in 2022 to 121 in 2023, and landing at 100 in 2024. Through the end of the second quarter in 2025, there have been 43 announced M&A deals in Canada, down slightly from the 48 deals announced at the end of Q2 2024.
Canada’s economy hit a soft patch in Q2, heightening caution across industries. Reports indicate that the economy shrank by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025 and early estimates point to another modest decline in Q3. This back-to-back contraction reflects mounting macroeconomic headwinds from the shock of new U.S. tariffs that have pummeled manufacturing and exports and stubborn inflation keeping interest rates elevated. Business confidence has wavered in this environment, with investment plans on hold and recession risks “growing and cannot be ignored,” as one economist warned.
For insurance brokerages, this uncertain backdrop translated into a palpable slowdown in M&A activity through Q2. The first quarter had already seen deal-making hit a four-year low, and consolidation in the brokerage sector cooled notably amid the economic uncertainty. Buyers have become more disciplined and selective, often extending due diligence and holding firm on valuations rather than chasing every opportunity. With financing costs still elevated and earnings projections clouded by inflation, many investors took a pause, resulting in fewer, smaller transactions and a more deliberate pace of deal-making compared to the frenzied highs of recent years. Overall sentiment remained positive but was decidedly more cautious than a year ago, contributing to this moderation in deal volume.
For all the near-term caution, the insurance distribution sector has been proving its mettle as a defensive play. Brokers benefit from recurring revenue streams and this steady cash flow has helped them weather economic storms better than many industries. Tellingly, “Finance and Insurance” was one of the few sectors to expand even amid the GDP dip. Investors are well aware of these strengths: private equity (PE) firms and industry consolidators have not lost interest in the space. In fact, almost half of brokerage acquisitions in 2025 were driven by PE-backed buyers, who “continue to set the pace” with ample capital and appetite for deals. This ongoing interest, particularly from private capital, speaks to the sector’s resilience and its attractiveness even in a slower market.
Looking ahead, there are credible reasons for optimism that deal activity will regain momentum toward the end of 2025. Monetary relief is on the horizon as many economists expect the Bank of Canada to begin easing rates by this fall, which would lower borrowing costs and improve financing availability for acquisitions. If inflationary pressures abate and valuations stabilize, more would-be sellers may come off the sidelines, and buyers will be ready; PE investors in particular are sitting on ample “dry powder” earmarked for insurance deals. The strategic drivers underpinning consolidation remain firmly in place as well, from achieving scale and succession planning to expanding into new markets and specialty niches. In short, the insurance brokerage M&A engine may be idling now, but its fundamental fuel (steady cash flows, investor interest, and growth ambitions) is still intact, setting the stage for a potential rebound once the economic clouds begin to part.
