MarshBerry’s Ascend Summit is an exclusive event designed for a select group of elite private wealth executives and firm owners to examine how leading firms are navigating today’s Golden Age of wealth management.
At the Summit, keynote speaker Ron Insana, CEO of Insana Information Partners and Senior Analyst at MS NOW, gave numerous insights into the broader economic and geopolitical backdrop shaping decision-making today. From the cooling economy to geopolitical risks and the accelerating capital demands of AI and infrastructure, Mr. Insana described how uncertainty has become structural. In such an environment, it’s increasingly difficult to make forecasts that look beyond three months given the rapid pace of policy changes and multiple other variables in play. Instead, firms should focus on controllable drivers such as capital discipline, intentional growth, client engagement, and leadership depth – areas that ultimately differentiate high-performing registered investment advisors (RIAs) across market cycles.
Here are three major takeaways from Mr. Insana’s presentation at the Ascend Summit:
1. Geopolitical conflicts are impacting global economies
Mr. Insana highlighted the risks of a U.S. and Iran escalation. The current war is disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian blockages and broader Middle East production, which is affecting oil prices, inflation, and global growth expectations. Mr. Insana noted that the U.S. is less oil sensitive than during the 1979 Iranian revolution, but it’s a variable that could impact market behavior and potentially stall economic momentum. In March, Moody’s wrote that the probability of a recession will likely increase if oil prices continue to surge; and that every recession since World War II, except for the recession during the pandemic, was preceded by rising oil prices.
Beyond the Middle East, geopolitical fragmentation continues to influence trade flows, supply chains, and investor sentiment. For example, the recent strength in precious metals markets reflects not only monetary dynamics but also a geopolitical risk premium.
For RIA leadership teams, these risks reinforce the importance of proactive client communication and scenario planning. While market outcomes are unpredictable, firms that can guide clients through volatility – setting expectations, reinforcing long-term plans, and “seeing around corners” are best positioned to retain and deepen relationships.
2. Moderating economic outlook in the U.S.
Mr. Insana spoke about seeing the U.S. economy continuing to expand, with a softened outlook. GDP growth was positive for the full year 2025, but Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised down to 0.7% from its prior 1.4% report. Mr. Insana’s base case for 2026 includes inflation remaining above target and the labor market remaining slightly weaker.
Three important themes are trade policy and global demand softness, as well as ongoing volatility in oil prices. Elevated tariffs, supply chain realignment, and slower international growth have weighed on certain sectors. Demographic pressures, including aging populations and lower birth rates in developed economies, may be a longer-term headwind to increasing productivity and labor force growth. Mr. Insana also discussed concerns about U.S. debt levels, noting that while the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio of around 100% is lower than many other countries, the $38 trillion national debt presents challenges.
In this environment, RIAs that rely heavily on market appreciation for growth may face increasing pressure. Leading firms are instead doubling down on organic growth drivers – net new asset generation, wallet share expansion, and deepening relationships across generations to maintain momentum regardless of market conditions.
3. The impact of AI on the economy
Mr. Insana discussed the significant impact of AI on the economy, noting its role in boosting GDP through infrastructure build-out and data center development, while also potentially affecting job markets, particularly for entry-level positions. Investment in data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, and related energy infrastructure has become a significant contributor to capital expenditure and GDP growth.
In the near term, AI is an economic driver as infrastructure build-out supports construction, engineering, and technology sectors. However, rapid growth and investment can bring risks. Financing structures supporting AI expansion, including off-balance sheet debt vehicles and private credit arrangements, warrant scrutiny. Furthermore, as more AI-related companies go public, valuation volatility may increase, particularly if growth expectations exceed realized earnings.
For RIAs, AI presents both opportunity and a call to action. Firms that thoughtfully incorporate AI into their operations whether through enhanced client insights, operational efficiency, or scalable service delivery can create a meaningful competitive advantage. Those that do not risk falling behind in an increasingly technology-enabled advisory landscape.
MarshBerry’s Ascend Summit
Stay tuned for Ascend 2027 to experience the exclusive, invite-only networking event tailored for top private wealth executives and firm owners. Registration includes ski lift tickets for two days, and significant others are welcome to attend. If you attended this year’s Ascend Summit and wish to discuss any of the topics or strategies for unlocking growth or value, please contact Kim Kovalski below.